SF49ers
1-9
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
13 mph
31
MIADolphins
6-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
7
10
24
Dolphins
0
14
10
7
31
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
358
Total Plays
73
58
Yards / Play
6.5
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
282
263
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.45
Rushing Yards
193
95
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
7.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.32
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-4.06
-2.11
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
65
42
Penalty EPA
-6.95
-4.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+249
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+87.8
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.7
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-3.6
Final Difference
212.2
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
19
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
22
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U