SF49ers
2-1
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
20 mph
23
PHIEagles
1-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
14
7
24
Eagles
7
13
3
0
23
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
513
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
7.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
278
405
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.23
Rushing Yards
164
108
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
6.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.39
-12.37
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-11
Sack EPA
-6.98
-2.46
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-4.96
-7.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
15
5
EPA / Rush
3
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U