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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ eagles week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
2-1
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
20 mph
23
PHIEagles
1-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
14
7
24
Eagles
7
13
3
0
23

Spread

SF logo
+10

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
442
513
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
7.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
278
405
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.23
Rushing Yards
164
108
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
6.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.39
-12.37
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-11
Sack EPA
-6.98
-2.46
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-4.96
-7.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+205
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Value
Ptile
10/03
-2.5
32
10/10
4.3
78
10/17
-1.6
40
10/24
-1.2
42
12/12
4.4
78
12/16
-6.5
11
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
-3.8
26
09/25
-3.9
25
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
11/21
3.0
70
11/28
5.0
82
12/02
7.4
91
12/12
0.5
52
12/19
12.8
99
12/28
0.8
54
01/09
3.5
72
09/11
3.4
74
09/18
4.2
77
09/25
-1.3
43

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
49ers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16

EPA

EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
17
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Eagles logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1

EPA

EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
15
5
EPA / Rush
3
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
16
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-21
L
L
U
11/29
21
W
W
U
12/05
-18
L
L
O
12/12
19
W
W
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/26
-8
L
L
O
01/02
31
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
P
O
09/25
5
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-5
L
L
O
12/02
10
W
W
O
12/12
3
W
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
-10
L
L
U
01/02
-1
L
W
U
01/09
-5
L
L
U
09/11
18
W
W
P
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-13
L
L
U