SF49ers
0-7
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
67°F
12 mph
33
PHIEagles
6-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
67°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
7
3
10
Eagles
3
8
10
6
27
Spread
-13
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
306
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
3.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.04
Passing Yards
144
194
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.10
Rushing Yards
94
112
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.36
-3.60
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-4.62
-4.08
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
69
35
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+347
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+87.0
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.4
Net QB Adjustment
+58.7
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-36.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-36.5
Value
Ptile
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
23
6
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
28
12
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U