SF49ers
6-7
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
32°F
18 mph
27
PHIEagles
9-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
32°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
10
0
13
Eagles
7
13
0
7
27
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
422
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.06
Passing Yards
154
--
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.02
Rushing Yards
107
116
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
0%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.94
-7.58
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-6.46
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
55
69
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-6.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+40.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-21.6
Market Regression
-47.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.6
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
20
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U