SF49ers
15-4
7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
14 mph
31
PHIEagles
15-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
0
7
Eagles
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
164
269
Total Plays
45
70
Yards / Play
3.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.45
+0.09
Passing Yards
83
121
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.03
Rushing Yards
81
148
Rush Attempts
24
44
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.56
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
4
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
7
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.56
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-7.65
-0.97
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
81
34
Penalty EPA
-13.99
-3.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,710
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+89.3
Home QB Adjustment
+40.8
Away QB Adjustment
-48.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-48.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+40.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
15
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
1
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
3
2
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U