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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ eagles week 21, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
15-4
7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
14 mph
31
PHIEagles
15-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
0
7
Eagles
7
14
7
3
31

Spread

PHI logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
164
269
Total Plays
45
70
Yards / Play
3.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.45
+0.09
Passing Yards
83
121
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.03
Rushing Yards
81
148
Rush Attempts
24
44
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.56
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
4
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
7
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.56
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-7.65
-0.97
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
81
34
Penalty EPA
-13.99
-3.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,708
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+89.3
Home QB Adjustment
+40.8
Away QB Adjustment
-48.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-48.5
Value
Ptile
12/11
5.8
88
12/15
1.5
64
12/24
-1.1
45
01/01
0.7
57
01/08
-0.9
46
01/14
9.7
96
01/22
-0.3
50
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+40.8
Value
Ptile
10/30
5.6
88
11/03
2.1
69
11/14
2.1
69
11/20
5.0
85
11/27
9.0
95
12/04
10.8
97
12/11
6.7
91
12/18
5.3
86
01/08
-6.1
13
01/21
3.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
49ers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16

EPA

EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
23
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
15
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Eagles logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2

EPA

EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
1
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
3
2
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
3
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
28
W
W
O
11/27
13
W
W
U
12/04
16
W
W
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
7
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-11
L
L
O
11/20
1
W
L
U
11/27
7
W
W
O
12/04
25
W
W
O
12/11
26
W
W
O
12/18
5
W
L
U
12/24
-6
L
L
O
01/01
-10
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
L
U
01/21
31
W
W
U