SF49ers
0-3
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
016
ATLFalcons
2-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
8
0
0
0
8
Falcons
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
357
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
4.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.07
Passing Yards
181
259
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.02
Rushing Yards
81
98
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.47
-4.72
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-1.22
-3.52
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
41
60
Penalty EPA
-6.14
-6.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model78.1%
Spread Pick
Falcons-7.0
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-7.2
Final Difference
220.8
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
16
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
6
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U