SF49ers
1-12
13
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
041
ATLFalcons
8-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
13
0
0
13
Falcons
21
7
10
3
41
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
550
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
4.9
8.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.36
Passing Yards
165
302
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
12.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.94
Rushing Yards
107
248
Rush Attempts
20
41
Yards / Rush
5.3
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.31
-5.68
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-3.67
-0.57
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
27
Penalty EPA
-3.32
-3.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+324
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
9
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U