SF49ers
12-4
28
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
14-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
7
7
28
Falcons
10
14
0
0
24
Spread
4
P
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
477
Total Plays
51
66
Yards / Play
7.3
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.10
Passing Yards
224
396
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.38
Rushing Yards
149
81
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
6
9
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.82
-9.87
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.46
-0.50
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
24
--
Penalty EPA
-2.35
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+28.7
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U