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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ falcons week 20, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
12-4
28
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
24
ATLFalcons
14-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
7
7
28
Falcons
10
14
0
0
24

Spread

SF logo
ATL logo
4
P

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
373
477
Total Plays
51
66
Yards / Play
7.3
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.10
Passing Yards
224
396
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.38
Rushing Yards
149
81
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
6
9
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.82
-9.87
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.46
-0.50
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
24
--
Penalty EPA
-2.35
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+28.7
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
-93.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.7
Value
Ptile
11/19
5.8
85
11/25
2.6
66
12/02
3.4
72
12/09
2.7
66
12/16
3.8
73
12/23
1.1
57
12/30
5.2
82
01/12
17.8
100
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
11/04
2.7
66
11/11
6.7
89
11/18
-7.5
8
11/25
5.5
84
11/29
-3.7
26
12/09
4.3
77
12/16
7.6
92
12/22
11.0
97
12/30
-0.2
49
01/13
4.8
80

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
49ers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19

EPA

EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
1
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Falcons logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
21
W
W
U
11/11
0
T
L
O
11/19
25
W
W
O
11/25
10
W
W
O
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
7
W
W
O
12/23
-29
L
L
O
12/30
14
W
L
O
01/12
14
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
6
W
W
U
11/11
-4
L
L
O
11/18
4
W
L
U
11/25
1
W
P
U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/09
-10
L
L
O
12/16
34
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/30
-5
L
L
U
01/13
2
W
L
O