SF49ers
1-1
36
TBD
MetLife Stadium
75°F
2 mph
9
NYGGiants
0-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
75°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
10
7
13
36
Giants
0
6
3
0
9
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
231
Total Plays
74
49
Yards / Play
5.7
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.24
Passing Yards
327
165
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.21
Rushing Yards
93
66
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
13
Passing 1st downs
19
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
67%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.94
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-2.93
-2.44
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
28
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-3.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+60.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-64.0
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-64.0
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
31
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
19
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U