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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ giants week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
5-4
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
0
10
NYGGiants
3-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
6
7
0
16
Giants
7
0
3
0
10

Spread

SF logo
-4

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
333
330
Total Plays
68
68
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.26
Passing Yards
185
265
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
22/45(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.33
Rushing Yards
148
65
Rush Attempts
37
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.88
-19.26
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-1.50
-3.54
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
54
Penalty EPA
+1.06
-3.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.6%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+33.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
-13.5
Market Regression
-13.6
Final Difference
-50.2
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
Value
Ptile
01/19
4.5
81
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
-3.4
28
09/21
7.3
89
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
11/09
-4.5
23
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Value
Ptile
12/29
-5.7
16
09/08
-6.5
13
09/14
0.6
53
09/21
3.7
75
09/25
9.4
95
10/05
0.5
52
10/12
-9.5
4
10/19
5.9
86
11/03
2.3
68
11/09
0.6
54

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
49ers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30

EPA

EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
20
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Giants logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7

EPA

EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
13
15
EPA / Rush
26
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
8
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
-8
L
L
O
09/21
-9
L
L
U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
14
W
W
U
09/08
-21
L
L
O
09/14
-11
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
O
10/05
10
W
W
U
10/12
-27
L
L
U
10/19
-10
L
L
O
11/03
-16
L
L
O
11/09
-21
L
L
O