SF49ers
5-4
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
010
NYGGiants
3-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
6
7
0
16
Giants
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
330
Total Plays
68
68
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.26
Passing Yards
185
265
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
22/45(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.33
Rushing Yards
148
65
Rush Attempts
37
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.88
-19.26
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-1.50
-3.54
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
54
Penalty EPA
+1.06
-3.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
Giants+4.0
Expected Value
+14.6%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+33.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
-13.5
Market Regression
-13.6
Final Difference
-50.3
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
20
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
13
15
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U