SF49ers
5-2
42
TBD
Wembley Stadium
60°F
13 mph
10
JAXJaguars
0-7
TBD
Wembley Stadium
60°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
14
7
1
36
Jaguars
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-16
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
318
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
7.2
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.51
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
11/17(65%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.08
Rushing Yards
221
90
Rush Attempts
38
25
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
67%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.37
-7.92
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
76
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-6.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.7%
Model89.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-342
Home nfelo
1,232
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
+2.2
Final Difference
-376.0
Model Spread
+16.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
26
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
32
7
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
22
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U