SF49ers
0-1
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
7 mph
13
NYJJets
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
14
3
7
31
Jets
3
0
3
7
13
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
277
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
6.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.16
Passing Yards
177
173
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.09
Rushing Yards
182
104
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.35
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-6
Sack EPA
-4.72
-1.20
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
59
65
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-5.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
Jets+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
-153.4
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Jets Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U