SF49ers
4-1
25
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
019
DETLions
5-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
3
10
23
Lions
10
0
3
6
19
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
310
Total Plays
63
74
Yards / Play
5.0
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.32
Passing Yards
111
244
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
28/51(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.52
-0.28
Rushing Yards
203
66
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
7.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
14%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.55
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-14
-49
Sack EPA
-7.99
-8.63
Penalties
15
6
Penalty Yards
120
54
Penalty EPA
-14.01
-11.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
145.2
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
32
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Lions
9-1
SU
9-0-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U