SF49ers
4-5
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
13 mph
30
GBPackers
5-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
7
14
24
Packers
6
17
0
7
30
Spread
6
P
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
484
Total Plays
46
79
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.15
Passing Yards
215
326
Comp/Att
16/33(48%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.21
Rushing Yards
69
158
Rush Attempts
10
32
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.92
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-3.52
-3.42
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
64
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-7.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Packers-6.0
Expected Value
+10.4%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+204
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+60.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-51.9
Market Regression
-0.4
Final Difference
165.3
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-51.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
9
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
5
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U