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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ packers week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
4-5
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
13 mph
30
GBPackers
5-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
7
14
24
Packers
6
17
0
7
30

Spread

SF logo
GB logo
6
P

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
284
484
Total Plays
46
79
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.15
Passing Yards
215
326
Comp/Att
16/33(48%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.21
Rushing Yards
69
158
Rush Attempts
10
32
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.92
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-3.52
-3.42
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
64
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-7.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.4%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+204
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+60.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-51.9
Market Regression
-0.4
Final Difference
165.3
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-51.9
Value
Ptile
09/10
-3.7
28
09/16
-5.3
16
09/23
-0.4
46
09/30
-5.8
14
10/28
-1.6
38
11/04
-11.2
2
11/12
-6.3
10
11/01
-2.6
34
11/08
-3.7
26
11/12
-5.3
18
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
12/28
3.5
75
09/13
-2.5
34
09/20
-1.2
42
09/27
6.6
87
10/05
1.6
61
10/18
2.6
66
10/25
8.6
94
11/01
5.5
85
11/08
-5.1
20
11/15
2.1
64

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
49ers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2

EPA

EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
20
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Packers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
9
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6

EPA

EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
5
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
7
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
3
W
W
P
09/13
4
W
W
U
09/20
13
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
W
O
10/04
35
W
W
U
10/11
-35
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
P
O
11/01
-4
L
W
U
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/12
4
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
10
W
L
P
09/13
6
W
W
U
09/20
-7
L
L
O
09/27
19
W
W
O
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/18
26
W
W
U
10/25
28
W
W
U
11/01
-12
L
L
O
11/08
-10
L
L
O
11/15
10
W
W
U