SF49ers
4-7
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
26°F
16 mph
34
GBPackers
7-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
26°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
10
3
0
16
Packers
0
14
14
6
34
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
410
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
5.3
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.23
Passing Yards
172
274
Comp/Att
10/25(40%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.34
Rushing Yards
97
136
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.30
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-22
-24
Sack EPA
-6.31
-5.72
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-3.49
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model78.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.5
Away QB Adjustment
-15.6
Market Regression
-33.8
Final Difference
226.1
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
23
1
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
25
14
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
11
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
4
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U