SF49ers
11-7
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
15°F
12 mph
10
GBPackers
13-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
15°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
3
4
7
Packers
7
0
0
3
10
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
212
263
Total Plays
52
54
Yards / Play
4.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.27
Passing Yards
106
196
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.20
Rushing Yards
106
67
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.48
-5.34
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-25
-29
Sack EPA
-7.00
-7.11
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.46
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
49ers+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+10.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-12.9
Net QB Adjustment
+23.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
58.2
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
11
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
30
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U