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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ panthers week 5, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
2-2
37
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0
15
CARPanthers
1-3
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
4
7
13
31
Panthers
0
3
9
3
15

Spread

SF logo
-6

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
397
308
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.20
Passing Yards
244
244
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.28
Rushing Yards
153
64
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.28
-7.43
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-9
-31
Sack EPA
-2.88
-10.14
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
50
33
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-6.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-196
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-29.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Value
Ptile
12/05
-0.6
48
12/12
-0.8
47
12/19
0.3
55
12/23
-0.8
47
01/09
-0.7
47
01/16
-2.0
37
01/22
-9.1
6
01/30
1.4
63
09/25
-5.0
18
10/03
2.1
69
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Value
Ptile
11/14
-7.8
9
11/21
-8.4
6
11/28
-3.4
28
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1
09/11
-2.6
31
09/18
-3.1
28
09/25
-4.5
21
10/02
-6.7
10

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
49ers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
6
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18

EPA

EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
23
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Panthers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
9
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
16
RZ Efficiency
12
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-3
L
L
U
01/02
16
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
O
01/16
6
W
W
U
01/22
3
W
W
U
01/30
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/18
20
W
W
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/03
15
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
01/09
-24
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U