SF49ers
2-2
37
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
015
CARPanthers
1-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
4
7
13
31
Panthers
0
3
9
3
15
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
308
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.20
Passing Yards
244
244
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.28
Rushing Yards
153
64
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.28
-7.43
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-9
-31
Sack EPA
-2.88
-10.14
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
50
33
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-6.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-196
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-29.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
6
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
23
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
9
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
16
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-9
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U