SF49ers
1-5
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
75°F
9 mph
23
CARPanthers
0-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
75°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
4
14
Panthers
3
7
3
10
23
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
379
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.09
Passing Yards
183
303
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.06
Rushing Yards
99
76
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.22
-16.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-5
Sack EPA
-2.31
-0.54
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
81
35
Penalty EPA
-9.22
-3.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+114.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
-8.5
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
6
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
32
18
EPA / Rush
32
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
30
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U