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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ panthers week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-5
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
75°F
9 mph
23
CARPanthers
0-5
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
75°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
4
14
Panthers
3
7
3
10
23

Spread

CAR logo
+2

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
282
379
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.09
Passing Yards
183
303
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.06
Rushing Yards
99
76
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.22
-16.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-5
Sack EPA
-2.31
-0.54
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
81
35
Penalty EPA
-9.22
-3.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+114.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
-4.9
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-4.0
24
12/20
-8.4
6
12/27
0.1
51
01/03
-2.0
39
09/12
-5.8
13
09/20
3.9
75
09/26
-5.8
14
10/03
-2.5
32
10/10
4.3
78
10/17
-1.6
40
M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
12/16
3.9
77
12/22
-5.5
16
12/30
1.4
61
12/06
-2.6
34
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
3.7
73
01/03
-0.8
45
09/12
-11.0
2
09/19
-7.7
8

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
49ers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
15
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Panthers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
6

EPA

EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
32
18
EPA / Rush
32
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
30
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
32
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
15
W
W
U
12/20
-14
L
L
U
12/27
14
W
P
U
01/03
22
W
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
P
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-21
L
L
O
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/17
8
W
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
-10
L
W
U
12/20
19
W
W
U
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
13
W
W
U
09/12
-13
L
L
O
09/19
-13
L
L
U
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
-17
L
L
U