SF49ers
13-4
23
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
8 mph
10
CARPanthers
12-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
7
7
3
23
Panthers
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
325
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.02
Passing Yards
189
232
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.01
Rushing Yards
126
93
Rush Attempts
34
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
43%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.17
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-35
Sack EPA
-1.72
-4.13
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
40
73
Penalty EPA
+0.68
-9.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,672
Home Field
+114.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
-16.3
Final Difference
-1.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U