SF49ers
3-3
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
7 mph
6
NEPatriots
2-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
16
7
3
33
Patriots
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
241
Total Plays
63
49
Yards / Play
7.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.25
Passing Yards
270
147
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.61
Rushing Yards
197
94
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
56%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
9
6
Red Zone %
80%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.59
-15.68
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-1.52
-4.09
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
65
30
Penalty EPA
-7.02
+1.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
49ers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+4.0
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
-8.8
Final Difference
26.5
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Patriots Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
4
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U