SF49ers
9-3
41
TBD
Gillette Stadium
34°F
5 mph
34
NEPatriots
10-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
34°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
14
10
41
Patriots
0
3
7
24
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
520
Total Plays
65
92
Yards / Play
6.0
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.05
Passing Yards
208
425
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
36/65(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.07
Rushing Yards
180
95
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
32
Passing 1st downs
11
22
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.77
-24.88
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-1.94
-3.96
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
88
73
Penalty EPA
-8.00
-17.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,711
Away nfelo
1,691
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
7
19
EPA / Rush
1
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Patriots Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U