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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ raiders week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
7-5
13
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
63°F
0
24
OAKRaiders
1-11
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
63°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
3
0
13
Raiders
3
7
7
7
24

Spread

OAK logo
+9

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
248
330
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
4.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
151
245
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.48
Rushing Yards
97
85
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.13
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-4.25
-2.05
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
84
Penalty EPA
-5.00
-10.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.3%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-144
Home nfelo
1,372
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-26.3
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-185.3
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-26.3
Value
Ptile
09/21
7.3
89
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
11/09
-4.5
23
11/16
-1.0
43
11/23
-1.4
40
11/27
-9.9
4
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Value
Ptile
09/21
-2.1
35
09/28
-2.3
34
10/12
4.4
80
10/19
-3.3
28
10/26
1.2
59
11/02
-2.3
34
11/09
-1.0
43
11/16
-7.1
10
11/20
-2.5
32
11/30
-8.7
7

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Raiders Defense
49ers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
20
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Raiders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Raiders logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7

EPA

EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
1
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-9
L
L
U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/23
4
W
L
U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-7
L
W
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/19
-11
L
L
U
10/26
-10
L
L
U
11/02
-6
L
W
O
11/09
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
U
11/20
4
W
W
O
11/30
-52
L
L
O