SF49ers
7-5
13
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
63°F
024
OAKRaiders
1-11
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
63°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
3
0
13
Raiders
3
7
7
7
24
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
330
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
4.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
151
245
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.48
Rushing Yards
97
85
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.13
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-4.25
-2.05
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
84
Penalty EPA
-5.00
-10.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
Raiders+9.0
Expected Value
+6.3%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-144
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-26.3
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-185.2
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-26.3
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Raiders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
1
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U