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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ rams week 4, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
1-2
35
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
11
LARRams
1-2
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
7
14
35
Rams
3
0
0
8
11

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
370
190
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
5.7
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.36
Passing Yards
151
170
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
19/41(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.43
Rushing Yards
219
20
Rush Attempts
40
20
Yards / Rush
5.5
1.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.76
-10.75
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-16
-32
Sack EPA
-3.37
-11.14
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
85
82
Penalty EPA
-9.36
-8.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
12/09
2.7
66
12/16
3.8
73
12/23
1.1
57
12/30
5.2
82
01/12
17.8
100
01/20
3.3
71
02/03
5.2
82
09/08
10.2
96
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
11/18
-1.2
41
11/25
-1.2
41
12/02
2.7
67
12/09
-3.0
30
12/16
3.5
72
12/23
-3.1
29
12/30
2.3
64
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9

EPA

EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
17
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
27
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
26
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
7
W
W
O
12/23
-29
L
L
O
12/30
14
W
L
O
01/12
14
W
W
O
01/20
4
W
W
O
02/03
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
O
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-14
L
L
O
11/25
14
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
O
12/23
15
W
W
U
12/30
-7
L
W
U
09/08
3
W
L
O
09/15
-7
L
L
O
09/22
-24
L
L
U