SF49ers
1-2
35
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
011
LARRams
1-2
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
7
14
35
Rams
3
0
0
8
11
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
190
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
5.7
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.36
Passing Yards
151
170
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
19/41(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.43
Rushing Yards
219
20
Rush Attempts
40
20
Yards / Rush
5.5
1.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.76
-10.75
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-16
-32
Sack EPA
-3.37
-11.14
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
85
82
Penalty EPA
-9.36
-8.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
17
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U