SF49ers
3-2
31
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
017
LARRams
1-3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
14
1
25
Rams
14
0
0
3
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
309
Total Plays
65
71
Yards / Play
6.6
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
216
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
21/42(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.28
Rushing Yards
89
93
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.87
-7.29
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.33
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
23
38
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-67.6
Home QB Adjustment
-69.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
A. Davis
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-69.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
20
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U