SF49ers
3-4
31
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
014
LARRams
3-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
7
14
31
Rams
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
223
Total Plays
52
56
Yards / Play
7.1
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.08
Passing Yards
257
167
Comp/Att
22/26(85%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.70
+0.01
Rushing Yards
111
56
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
56%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-20
Sack EPA
-4.39
-4.31
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
8
50
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-3.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+41.4
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
23
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
27
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U