SF49ers
4-6
23
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
020
LARRams
7-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
4
6
17
Rams
3
0
4
7
14
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
308
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.49
Passing Yards
233
182
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.68
Rushing Yards
112
126
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.52
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-19.32
-23.18
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-16
Sack EPA
-3.82
-3.69
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
27
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-2.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+0.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+46.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-34.4
Market Regression
-28.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-34.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U