SF49ers
5-9
17
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
025
LARRams
6-8
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
8
0
3
11
Rams
7
3
3
10
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
335
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.08
Passing Yards
246
275
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.03
Rushing Yards
85
60
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.17
-6.32
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-17
Sack EPA
-8.44
-6.32
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
87
41
Penalty EPA
-10.12
-5.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U