SF49ers
1-13
22
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
59°F
6 mph
21
LARRams
4-10
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
0
15
22
Rams
14
0
0
7
21
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
177
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
4.6
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.15
Passing Yards
253
78
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
11/24(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.55
Rushing Yards
72
99
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.95
-7.65
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-13
-12
Sack EPA
-6.59
-6.25
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
100
45
Penalty EPA
-7.96
-3.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
49ers+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,353
Away nfelo
1,328
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+26.6
Final Difference
92.0
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
4-6
O/U