SF49ers
7-8
28
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
06
LARRams
1-14
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
7
21
28
Rams
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
109
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.2
1.8
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.49
Passing Yards
204
22
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
11/28(39%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
0.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.88
Rushing Yards
125
87
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
6
Passing 1st downs
8
4
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-18
-58
Sack EPA
-3.70
-11.87
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-5.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-162
Home nfelo
1,292
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-22.4
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
K. Null
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
29
10
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-3-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U