SF49ers
12-3
34
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
027
LARRams
2-13
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
13
7
7
34
Rams
7
0
3
17
27
Spread
+12.5
Total
OVER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
311
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
4.5
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.11
Passing Yards
205
200
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.27
Rushing Yards
116
111
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.06
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-26
Sack EPA
-4.85
-5.90
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market84.5%
Model82.0%
Spread Pick
Rams+12.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-230
Home nfelo
1,305
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
-263.9
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
8
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
3
2
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Rams
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U