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nfelo...
predictions...
49ers @ rams week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread

Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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SF49ers

12-3

34

TBD

Edward Jones Dome

70°F

0

27

LARRams

2-13

TBD

Edward Jones Dome

70°F

0

Game Summary

Scoring

1

2

3

4

Total

49ers

7

13

7

7

34

Rams

7

0

3

17

27

Spread

+12.5

Total

OVER

35.5

Game Statistics

General

Total Yards

321

311

Total Plays

71

62

Yards / Play

4.5

5.0

EPA / Play

+0.06

-0.11

Passing Yards

205

200

Comp/Att

21/31(68%)

14/34(41%)

Yards / Pass

6.6

5.9

EPA / Pass

+0.22

-0.27

Rushing Yards

116

111

Rush Attempts

37

25

Yards / Rush

3.1

4.4

EPA / Rush

+0.04

-0.06

Downs & Conversions

1st Downs

21

18

Passing 1st downs

11

11

Rushing 1st downs

9

4

Penalty 1st downs

1

3

3rd Down %

38%

33%

3rd Down Conversions

6

5

3rd Down Attempts

16

15

Red Zone %

60%

100%

Red Zone Conversions

3

2

Red Zone Attempts

5

2

Negative Plays

Turnovers

0

2

Interceptions

0

2

Fumbles

0

0

Turnover EPA

--

-9.06

Sacks

3

3

Sack Yards

-22

-26

Sack EPA

-4.85

-5.90

Penalties

5

6

Penalty Yards

--

50

Penalty EPA

--

-6.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner

SF49ersFavored

Opening

-10.5

Current

-12.5

Model

-11.0

Win Probability

Market84.5%

Model82.1%

Spread Pick

Rams+12.5

Projected +EV

Expected Value

+0.8%

Cover Probability

52.8%

Projection Detail

nfelo Difference

-231

Home nfelo

1,304

Away nfelo

1,602

Home Field

+78.5

Base HFA

+62.5

Divisional Adj

-28.2

Home Bye Adj

--

Away Bye Adj

--

Surface Adj

+21.8

Time Adj

+22.4

Net QB Adjustment

-11.4

Home QB Adjustment

-9.7

Away QB Adjustment

+1.7

Market Regression

-8.9

Final Difference

-264.2

Model Spread

+11.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith

Proj. Value

-2.3

Team Elo Adj

+1.7

Value

Ptile

K. Clemens

Proj. Value

-2.5

Team Elo Adj

-9.7

Value

Ptile

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense

Total

Points / Game

9

25

Yards / Game

24

21

Passing Yards / Game

29

14

Rushing Yards / Game

8

31

EPA

EPA / Play

12

16

EPA / Pass

14

20

EPA / Rush

17

27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

28

1

Interceptions / Game

1

23

Fumbles / Game

8

29

Turnover EPA / Game

32

5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

31

18

4th Down Efficiency

3

29

RZ Efficiency

30

13

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense

Total

Points / Game

32

2

Yards / Game

31

7

Passing Yards / Game

21

29

Rushing Yards / Game

23

1

EPA

EPA / Play

32

1

EPA / Pass

31

5

EPA / Rush

32

1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

17

7

Interceptions / Game

3

2

Fumbles / Game

27

1

Turnover EPA / Game

13

28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

32

11

4th Down Efficiency

24

11

RZ Efficiency

31

4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

49ers

8-2

SU

8-2

ATS

2-8

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U

Rams

2-8

SU

2-7-1

ATS

3-7

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U