SF49ers
4-11
32
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
3 mph
48
LARRams
12-3
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
7
7
15
32
Rams
14
11
14
3
42
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
377
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.22
Passing Yards
266
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.53
Rushing Yards
127
155
Rush Attempts
22
42
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.20
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-3.79
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
41
57
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+267
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+64.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-60.4
Market Regression
+37.8
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-60.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U