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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ rams week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
4-11
32
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
3 mph
48
LARRams
12-3
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
7
7
15
32
Rams
14
11
14
3
42

Spread

LAR logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
393
377
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.22
Passing Yards
266
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.53
Rushing Yards
127
155
Rush Attempts
22
42
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.20
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-3.79
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
41
57
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-7.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+274
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+64.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-60.4
Market Regression
+34.3
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-60.4
Value
Ptile
11/01
4.6
78
11/12
-1.0
39
11/25
-9.5
4
12/02
2.8
69
12/09
-0.8
41
12/16
-0.1
45
12/23
-1.4
36
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
10/14
-9.0
6
10/21
2.0
61
10/28
-0.5
43
11/04
8.6
93
11/11
5.8
84
11/19
8.4
93
12/02
-5.9
13
12/09
-13.9
1
12/16
-0.1
46
12/23
3.3
71

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
28
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13

EPA

EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
19
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-3
L
W
O
10/21
-29
L
L
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/01
31
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
O
12/09
6
W
W
U
12/16
3
W
W
O
12/23
-5
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/21
29
W
W
U
10/28
2
W
L
U
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
5
W
L
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-9
L
L
U
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
22
W
W
U