SF49ers
9-7
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
024
LARRams
12-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
0
3
14
7
3
27
Rams
3
14
0
7
0
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
265
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
6.7
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.03
Passing Yards
314
201
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.39
Rushing Yards
135
64
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
64%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
9
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.33
-2.08
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-26
-37
Sack EPA
-5.15
-7.78
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
56
15
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-2.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,652
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
-33.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
6
9
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U