SF49ers
12-7
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
020
LARRams
14-5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
7
0
17
Rams
0
7
0
13
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
396
Total Plays
50
76
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.29
Rushing Yards
50
70
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-5.80
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.61
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-7.68
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,672
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
6
9
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U