SF49ers
9-1
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
5 mph
16
BALRavens
7-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
3
0
6
Ravens
3
3
0
10
16
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
170
253
Total Plays
54
58
Yards / Play
3.1
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.07
Passing Yards
96
--
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.44
Rushing Yards
74
92
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.93
--
Sacks
9
--
Sack Yards
-44
--
Sack EPA
-11.81
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
97
--
Penalty EPA
-7.96
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
9-1
SU
9-0-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U