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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ ravens week 12, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
9-1
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
5 mph
16
BALRavens
7-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
3
0
6
Ravens
3
3
0
10
16

Spread

BAL logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
170
253
Total Plays
54
58
Yards / Play
3.1
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.07
Passing Yards
96
--
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.44
Rushing Yards
74
92
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.93
--
Sacks
9
--
Sack Yards
-44
--
Sack EPA
-11.81
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
97
--
Penalty EPA
-7.96
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
-3.8
26
09/25
-3.9
25
10/02
2.7
71
10/09
3.7
75
10/16
-5.5
16
10/30
2.2
67
11/06
0.6
56
11/13
0.8
58
11/20
2.0
66
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
09/11
4.8
80
09/18
-7.9
6
09/25
7.8
93
10/02
-8.6
4
10/16
0.9
59
10/24
-6.3
13
10/30
-0.9
45
11/06
1.7
64
11/13
-1.3
42
11/20
2.4
68

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
49ers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3

EPA

EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Ravens logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
18
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
17
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

9-1
SU
9-0-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
16
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
P
O
09/25
5
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
45
W
W
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/30
10
W
W
U
11/06
8
W
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
16
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
28
W
W
O
09/18
-13
L
L
U
09/25
30
W
W
O
10/02
17
W
W
O
10/16
15
W
W
U
10/24
-5
L
L
U
10/30
3
W
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
O
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
7
W
P
O