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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ saints week 10, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
4-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
24
NOSaints
4-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
14
7
0
3
3
27
Saints
3
7
7
7
0
24

Spread

SF logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
330
423
Total Plays
68
80
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
186
287
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.05
Rushing Yards
144
136
Rush Attempts
32
31
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.29
-10.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-5
Sack EPA
-10.35
-3.82
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
15
43
Penalty EPA
-2.20
-4.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
01/12
2.0
64
01/19
4.5
81
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
-3.4
28
09/21
7.3
89
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84
10/26
9.1
95
10/30
0.0
49

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
49ers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
21
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29

EPA

EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
20
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Saints logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7

EPA

EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
7
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
13
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
-8
L
L
O
09/21
-9
L
L
U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
21
W
W
O
10/30
18
W
W
U