SF49ers
4-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
14
7
0
3
3
27
Saints
3
7
7
7
0
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
423
Total Plays
68
80
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
186
287
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.05
Rushing Yards
144
136
Rush Attempts
32
31
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.29
-10.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-5
Sack EPA
-10.35
-3.82
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
15
43
Penalty EPA
-2.20
-4.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
21
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
20
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U