nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ saints week 11, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
6-3
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
23
NOSaints
7-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
7
3
20
Saints
7
7
0
9
23

Spread

SF logo
NO logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
196
387
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
3.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.04
Passing Yards
115
295
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.00
Rushing Yards
81
92
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+4.79
-6.29
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-2.45
+1.11
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
48
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-5.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Value
Ptile
02/03
5.2
82
09/08
10.2
96
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Value
Ptile
12/30
8.4
93
09/08
4.5
81
09/15
-5.1
19
09/22
5.9
86
09/30
12.2
98
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46
10/27
9.0
94
11/03
1.3
60
11/10
13.0
99

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
49ers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20

EPA

EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
17
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Saints logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4

EPA

EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
15
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
12
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/03
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
O
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-6
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/30
21
W
W
O
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
32
W
W
O