SF49ers
6-3
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
023
NOSaints
7-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
7
3
20
Saints
7
7
0
9
23
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
387
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
3.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.04
Passing Yards
115
295
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.00
Rushing Yards
81
92
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+4.79
-6.29
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-2.45
+1.11
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
48
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-5.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
17
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U