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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
-
6
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
11 mph
31
SEASeahawks
-
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
3
0
0
6
Seahawks
0
14
8
3
25

Spread

SEA logo
+3

Total

PUSH
37
P

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
263
242
Total Plays
66
47
Yards / Play
4.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.06
Passing Yards
214
165
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.26
Rushing Yards
49
77
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
14
14
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
7%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.91
-4.57
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-1.68
-1.44
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
60
35
Penalty EPA
-7.76
-4.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
-34.7
Final Difference
-34.7
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
11/01
-2.6
34
11/08
-3.7
26
11/12
-5.3
18
11/22
-0.7
45
11/29
4.8
81
12/06
4.5
79
12/14
-4.0
24
12/20
-8.4
6
12/27
0.1
51
01/03
-2.0
39
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
11/01
1.2
57
11/08
5.6
85
11/15
-5.2
19
11/22
0.2
51
11/29
-3.2
30
12/06
2.0
64
12/13
-0.9
44
12/20
-4.8
21
12/27
-9.2
4
01/03
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
15
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
13
EPA / Pass
24
18
EPA / Rush
24
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
20
17
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
26
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-4
L
W
U
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/22
-6
L
P
O
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
15
W
W
U
12/20
-14
L
L
U
12/27
14
W
P
U
01/03
22
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-21
L
L
O
11/08
12
W
W
O
11/15
-11
L
L
O
11/22
-26
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
-27
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-38
L
L
O
01/03
-4
L
W
U