SF49ers
1-0
3
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
6 mph
29
SEASeahawks
1-0
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
3
0
3
Seahawks
0
3
7
17
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
207
290
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
4.1
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.64
-0.09
Passing Yards
107
118
Comp/Att
13/28(46%)
8/19(42%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.89
+0.06
Rushing Yards
100
172
Rush Attempts
20
47
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-23.29
-0.54
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-24
Sack EPA
-7.25
-3.41
Penalties
12
10
Penalty Yards
121
84
Penalty EPA
-13.05
-3.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
+23.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U