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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 8, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
4-3
27
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
4 mph
37
SEASeahawks
5-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
20
27
Seahawks
6
7
14
10
37

Spread

SEA logo
-1

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
351
350
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.28
Passing Yards
299
249
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.44
Rushing Yards
52
101
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
46%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-5.34
-2.46
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
36
30
Penalty EPA
-5.14
-2.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-75.2
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
12/21
-8.3
8
12/29
0.5
55
01/11
-5.1
20
01/19
-4.5
22
02/02
-2.8
33
09/13
-1.1
37
09/20
-0.6
41
10/11
-13.6
1
10/18
7.3
90
10/25
-0.2
45
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Value
Ptile
12/22
-9.9
4
12/29
3.4
74
01/05
4.7
83
01/12
3.6
75
09/13
11.0
97
09/20
10.8
97
09/27
6.8
88
10/04
2.1
59
10/11
2.2
61
10/25
6.8
87

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
22
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
7
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
3
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
17
W
W
U
01/19
17
W
W
O
02/02
-11
L
L
U
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-5
L
L
U
10/11
-26
L
L
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-14
L
L
U
12/29
-5
L
L
P
01/05
8
W
W
U
01/12
-5
L
L
O
09/13
13
W
W
O
09/20
5
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
8
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
L
U
10/25
-3
L
L
O