SF49ers
4-3
27
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
4 mph
37
SEASeahawks
5-1
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
20
27
Seahawks
6
7
14
10
37
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
350
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.28
Passing Yards
299
249
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.44
Rushing Yards
52
101
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
46%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-5.34
-2.46
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
36
30
Penalty EPA
-5.14
-2.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-90.0
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
7
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U