SF49ers
3-6
13
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
6 mph
29
SEASeahawks
4-5
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
6
0
13
Seahawks
13
7
3
6
29
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
508
Total Plays
52
75
Yards / Play
5.9
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.18
Passing Yards
247
253
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
24/29(83%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.62
Rushing Yards
59
255
Rush Attempts
16
44
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
18%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-4.69
-2.13
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
-6.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+319
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
-28.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.5
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+98.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-107.1
Market Regression
+54.5
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-107.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U