SF49ers
7-3
31
TBD
Lumen Field
39°F
4 mph
13
SEASeahawks
6-4
TBD
Lumen Field
39°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
17
0
7
31
Seahawks
3
0
4
0
7
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
220
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
5.8
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.22
Passing Yards
208
132
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.44
Rushing Yards
169
88
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
12
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.86
-4.67
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-1
-48
Sack EPA
-1.48
-11.62
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
39
Penalty EPA
--
-5.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-153
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-48.7
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U