SF49ers
10-3
13
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
3 mph
42
SEASeahawks
9-5
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
0
7
13
Seahawks
14
8
7
7
36
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
346
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.33
Passing Yards
231
170
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.73
Rushing Yards
82
176
Rush Attempts
19
39
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
85%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-4.94
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-13
-1
Sack EPA
-1.91
-0.79
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
58
45
Penalty EPA
-8.08
-4.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
49ers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,695
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.5
Home QB Adjustment
+40.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
+9.7
Final Difference
25.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+40.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
5
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U