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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 20, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
14-4
17
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
1 mph
23
SEASeahawks
14-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
7
7
0
17
Seahawks
0
3
10
10
23

Spread

SEA logo
-3.5

Total

PUSH
40
P

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
308
308
Total Plays
54
58
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.02
Passing Yards
147
193
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
161
115
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.42
-5.52
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-6
-22
Sack EPA
-5.79
-9.28
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
65
66
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-3.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,708
Away nfelo
1,701
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78
12/23
2.0
63
12/29
5.9
86
01/05
2.2
66
01/12
2.0
64
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Value
Ptile
10/28
-6.0
14
11/03
3.9
76
11/10
5.8
85
11/17
2.8
69
12/02
11.2
97
12/08
-2.0
39
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
-7.1
10
12/29
-4.0
24
01/11
-6.0
14

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O
12/23
10
W
L
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
01/05
3
W
P
U
01/12
13
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
5
W
L
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
23
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
U
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
U
01/11
8
W
L
U