SF49ers
14-4
17
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
1 mph
23
SEASeahawks
14-3
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
7
7
0
17
Seahawks
0
3
10
10
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
PUSH
40
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
308
Total Plays
54
58
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.02
Passing Yards
147
193
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
161
115
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.42
-5.52
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-6
-22
Sack EPA
-5.79
-9.28
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
65
66
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-3.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,711
Away nfelo
1,703
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U