SF49ers
3-2
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
3-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
7
14
21
Texans
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
336
Total Plays
54
59
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.14
Passing Yards
238
246
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.34
Rushing Yards
59
90
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
+0.05
+0.44
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-3.04
-2.66
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
65
77
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-6.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
10
21
Fumbles / Game
6
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
29
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-4-4
O/U