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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ texans week 7, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
3-2
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
24
HOUTexans
3-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
7
14
21
Texans
7
14
0
3
24

Spread

SF logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
297
336
Total Plays
54
59
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.14
Passing Yards
238
246
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.34
Rushing Yards
59
90
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
+0.05
+0.44
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-3.04
-2.66
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
65
77
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-6.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
11/30
-2.8
29
12/07
4.2
79
12/14
-1.4
41
12/21
-4.4
19
12/28
4.5
81
09/13
-2.5
35
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30
10/11
-5.2
20
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Value
Ptile
12/07
8.2
95
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-3.5
25
12/28
8.8
95
09/13
-5.1
20
09/20
11.7
99
09/27
5.5
84
10/04
-5.0
21
10/11
8.0
92
10/18
8.8
94

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
49ers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
20
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
10
21
Fumbles / Game
6
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Texans logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
29
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
12
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
7
W
W
P
12/07
10
W
W
P
12/14
-5
L
W
P
12/21
1
W
L
P
12/28
3
W
W
P
09/13
4
W
W
U
09/20
13
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
W
O
10/04
35
W
W
U
10/11
-35
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-4-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
3
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
W
P
12/21
-11
L
L
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/13
-17
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
23
W
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
11
W
W
U