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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ texans week 14, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
2-10
26
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
16
HOUTexans
4-8
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
13
10
3
26
Texans
3
6
7
0
16

Spread

SF logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
416
311
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.15
Passing Yards
314
221
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.15
Rushing Yards
102
90
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
18%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-4.03
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-17
Sack EPA
-3.80
-4.84
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
87
81
Penalty EPA
-13.41
-11.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+56.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
-70.3
Home QB Adjustment
-52.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
09/11
2.6
69
09/18
5.6
85
12/03
-0.4
49
T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-52.7
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.5
16
01/01
-7.3
7
09/10
-10.9
2
11/05
-5.2
18
11/12
-7.2
12
11/19
1.7
65
11/27
-3.8
25
12/03
-0.5
48

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
49ers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12

EPA

EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
9
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Texans logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22

EPA

EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
12
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
20
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U
11/12
10
W
W
O
11/26
-11
L
L
U
12/03
1
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O
10/08
-8
L
L
O
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/12
-26
L
L
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/27
-7
L
W
U
12/03
-11
L
L
U