SF49ers
2-10
26
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
016
HOUTexans
4-8
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
13
10
3
26
Texans
3
6
7
0
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
311
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.15
Passing Yards
314
221
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.15
Rushing Yards
102
90
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
18%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-4.03
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-17
Sack EPA
-3.80
-4.84
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
87
81
Penalty EPA
-13.41
-11.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+94.7
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-70.3
Home QB Adjustment
-52.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-52.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
9
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
12
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U