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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ titans week 7, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
4-2
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
3 mph
17
TENTitans
3-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
14
7
7
31
Titans
0
0
0
17
17

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
349
368
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
5.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.07
Passing Yards
196
298
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.02
Rushing Yards
153
70
Rush Attempts
41
13
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+7.61
-3.16
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-3
-28
Sack EPA
-1.80
-5.13
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
42
100
Penalty EPA
-8.13
-8.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Value
Ptile
12/30
5.2
82
01/12
17.8
100
01/20
3.3
71
02/03
5.2
82
09/08
10.2
96
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
11/25
-2.8
32
12/02
-6.9
10
12/09
1.4
60
12/17
-0.2
49
12/23
-11.3
2
12/30
-5.1
18
09/08
-3.5
28
09/15
-2.5
36
09/22
8.0
92
09/29
4.6
82

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
49ers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19

EPA

EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
17
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
23
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
16
27
Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Titans logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4

EPA

EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
12
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
9
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
14
W
L
O
01/12
14
W
W
O
01/20
4
W
W
O
02/03
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
O
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-4
L
L
O
12/17
4
W
W
U
12/23
-48
L
L
O
12/30
18
W
W
O
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
W
O
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U