SF49ers
4-2
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
3 mph
17
TENTitans
3-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
14
7
7
31
Titans
0
0
0
17
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
368
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
5.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.07
Passing Yards
196
298
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.02
Rushing Yards
153
70
Rush Attempts
41
13
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+7.61
-3.16
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-3
-28
Sack EPA
-1.80
-5.13
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
42
100
Penalty EPA
-8.13
-8.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
23
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
16
27
Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U