SF49ers
8-6
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
48°F
7 mph
20
TENTitans
9-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
48°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
7
17
Titans
0
0
10
10
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
278
Total Plays
58
58
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
306
188
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.23
Rushing Yards
83
90
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.51
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-21
Sack EPA
-2.26
-5.31
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
41
57
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-8.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+23.4
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-13.1
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
8
Interceptions / Game
20
11
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U