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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ titans week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
8-6
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
48°F
7 mph
20
TENTitans
9-5
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
48°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
7
17
Titans
0
0
10
10
20

Spread

TEN logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
389
278
Total Plays
58
58
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
306
188
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.23
Rushing Yards
83
90
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.51
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-21
Sack EPA
-2.26
-5.31
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
41
57
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-8.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+23.4
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-13.1
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
-4.2
23
10/24
-8.1
8
10/31
5.6
86
11/07
-0.2
52
11/15
2.7
73
11/21
-1.4
42
11/28
-3.1
30
12/05
-0.6
48
12/12
-0.8
47
12/19
0.3
55
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.8
Value
Ptile
10/10
-3.7
26
10/18
0.7
58
10/24
1.9
67
10/31
0.2
55
11/07
-2.0
38
11/14
1.6
65
11/21
-5.6
16
11/28
-4.3
23
12/12
-3.1
30
12/19
-3.3
28

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
49ers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1

EPA

EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
15
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
8
Interceptions / Game
20
11
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Titans logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6

EPA

EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
10
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
9
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-7
L
L
U
10/24
-12
L
L
O
10/31
11
W
W
O
11/07
-14
L
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/21
20
W
W
U
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/12
3
W
W
P
12/19
18
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
3
W
W
O
10/24
24
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
12
W
W
U
11/14
2
W
L
P
11/21
-9
L
L
U
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
20
W
W
U
12/19
-6
L
L
U