SF49ers
2-0
24
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
027
MINVikings
2-0
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
8
3
7
18
Vikings
7
6
7
7
27
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
377
Total Plays
52
75
Yards / Play
4.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.08
Passing Yards
188
283
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
24/46(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.04
Rushing Yards
58
94
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
0%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
--
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
20
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.14
-3.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.38
-3.84
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
60
52
Penalty EPA
-8.35
-10.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
Vikings-6.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
166.4
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
12
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
24
1
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-1-8
O/U