SF49ers
5-1
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
022
MINVikings
2-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
7
3
17
Vikings
7
9
6
0
22
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
452
Total Plays
53
66
Yards / Play
6.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
260
--
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
35/45(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.29
Rushing Yards
65
74
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
56%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.29
-5.21
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-1.95
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-5.68
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,700
Home Field
+42.8
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-15.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U