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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ 49ers week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
0-1
28
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph
20
SF49ers
1-0
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
21
28
49ers
10
7
3
0
20

Spread

CHI logo
+7

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
216
359
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
4.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
170
232
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.13
Rushing Yards
46
127
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-18.86
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-1.65
-4.10
Penalties
10
16
Penalty Yards
58
118
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-19.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
09/22
-0.0
49
09/29
-3.2
30
10/06
7.6
91
10/10
5.5
85
10/20
-9.1
5
11/10
-2.6
35
12/15
2.0
64
12/22
-5.4
18
12/29
0.3
52
09/07
4.3
78
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78
12/23
2.0
63
12/29
5.9
86
01/05
2.2
66
01/12
2.0
64
01/19
4.5
81
09/07
1.6
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bears logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7

EPA

EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
6
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
2
28
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
49ers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16

EPA

EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
20
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
29
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/10
-2
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
O
11/24
-21
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
L
U
12/09
17
W
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-43
L
L
O
12/29
-5
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O
12/23
10
W
L
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
01/05
3
W
P
U
01/12
13
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
09/07
11
W
W
U