CHIBears
0-1
28
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph
20
SF49ers
1-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
21
28
49ers
10
7
3
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
359
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
4.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
170
232
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.13
Rushing Yards
46
127
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-18.86
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-1.65
-4.10
Penalties
10
16
Penalty Yards
58
118
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-19.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
6
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
2
28
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
29
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U